Premodern and Early-Modern Battle/War Casualty Ranges

Table of published casualty ranges for single battles and wars in this patch; ESTIMATED: ranges are secondary-source compilations (stub) except Cannae/Polybius.

Data Summary

| event | year | figure | band used | source grade | confidence |

|---|---|---|---|---|---|

| Cannae, Roman deaths | -216 | ~70,000 (Polybius 3.117, read); ~48,200 (Livy 22.49, read); 67,500-80,000 (Wikipedia) | 48,000-80,000 | two primary texts + stub | medium |

| Pharsalus, Pompeian deaths | -48 | ~15,000 fell, 24,000+ surrendered (Caesar BC 3.99, read; partisan) | 15,000-39,000 | primary text + stub | medium-low |

| Siege of Tyre, defender deaths | -332 | ~8,000 killed (Arrian 2.24, read); Wikipedia 6,000-7,000 + 2,000 executed | 6,000-9,000 | primary text + stub | low-medium |

| Changping (Sima Qian claim) | -260 | >450,000 Zhao | not used | stub | low |

| Talas, Tang-side deaths | 751 | 20,000-30,000 (Chinese) / 45,000-50,000 (Arab) | 20,000-50,000 | stub | low |

| Hattin, Crusader losses | 1187 | most of army | n/a | stub | low |

| Baghdad 1258 deaths | 1258 | 200,000-2,000,000 | 100,000-1,000,000 (midpoint-style band; method: published-range) | stub | low |

| Lepanto, Ottoman deaths | 1571 | 20,000-40,000 | 20,000-40,000 | stub | low-medium |

| Thirty Years' War total | 1618-48 | 4.5-8 million | 4.5-8 million | stub (Wilson via Wikipedia) | medium |

| Vienna 1683, Ottoman casualties | 1683 | 66,000-79,000 | 66,000-79,000 | stub | low-medium |

| Trafalgar, Franco-Spanish killed | 1805 | 4,395 | 4,395 | stub | medium |

| Napoleonic, coalition military dead | 1803-15 | 1.8 million+ | 1.8 million+ (floor) | stub | medium |

| Taiping total deaths | 1850-64 | 20-30 million | 20-30 million | stub (Platt via Wikipedia) | medium-low |

Method for estimates: published-range reporting only; no interpolation. Bands are the published ranges (midpoints not computed to avoid false precision), except Baghdad where the band is an editorial hedge (LOW).

Citations

• polybius-histories-3 [formal] Polybius (-150). Polybius, Histories, Book 3 (Perseus Digital Library, Paton transl.). Perseus Digital Library (Tufts). https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus:text:1999.01.0234:book=3:chapter=117. Verified 2026-10-11 (resolves).
• wilson2009-europes-tragedy [formal] Peter H. Wilson (2009). Europe's Tragedy: A History of the Thirty Years War. Allen Lane / Penguin. https://openlibrary.org/works/OL20804307W. Verified 2026-10-11 (Open Library record found; edition exists, page-level not checked).
• platt2012-autumn-heavenly-kingdom [formal] Stephen R. Platt (2012). Autumn in the Heavenly Kingdom: China, the West, and the Epic Story of the Taiping Civil War. Alfred A. Knopf. https://openlibrary.org/works/OL16142499W. Verified 2026-10-11 (Open Library record found; edition exists, page-level not checked).
• clodfelter2017-warfare-armed-conflicts [formal] Micheal Clodfelter (2017). Warfare and Armed Conflicts: A Statistical Encyclopedia of Casualty and Other Figures, 1492-2015 (4th ed.). McFarland. https://openlibrary.org/works/OL2725142W. Verified 2026-10-11 (Open Library record found; edition exists, page-level not checked).
• wp-battle-of-cannae [STUB (secondary aggregator)] Wikipedia contributors (2026). Battle of Cannae (Wikipedia; secondary aggregator, stub-grade). Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Cannae. Verified 2026-10-11 (resolves).
• wp-siege-of-baghdad-1258 [STUB (secondary aggregator)] Wikipedia contributors (2026). Siege of Baghdad (1258) (Wikipedia; secondary aggregator, stub-grade). Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Baghdad_(1258). Verified 2026-10-11 (resolves).
• wp-thirty-years-war [STUB (secondary aggregator)] Wikipedia contributors (2026). Thirty Years' War (Wikipedia; secondary aggregator, stub-grade). Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Years'_War. Verified 2026-10-11 (resolves).
• wp-battle-of-lepanto [STUB (secondary aggregator)] Wikipedia contributors (2026). Battle of Lepanto (Wikipedia; secondary aggregator, stub-grade). Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Lepanto. Verified 2026-10-11 (resolves).
• wp-battle-of-trafalgar [STUB (secondary aggregator)] Wikipedia contributors (2026). Battle of Trafalgar (Wikipedia; secondary aggregator, stub-grade). Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Trafalgar. Verified 2026-10-11 (resolves).
• wp-napoleonic-wars [STUB (secondary aggregator)] Wikipedia contributors (2026). Napoleonic Wars (Wikipedia; secondary aggregator, stub-grade). Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Napoleonic_Wars. Verified 2026-10-11 (resolves).
• wp-taiping-rebellion [STUB (secondary aggregator)] Wikipedia contributors (2026). Taiping Rebellion (Wikipedia; secondary aggregator, stub-grade). Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiping_Rebellion. Verified 2026-10-11 (resolves).

Series values: see series.war-gap.json (ids prefixed war premodern battle casualty ranges).