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Data card

Sinitic/East Asian Trade Volume Data 1945-present CE

Trade volume estimates for Sinitic civilization during American period (1945-present CE), showing trade-to-GDP ratios, trade network expansion, and globalization, with focus on modern China (PRC).

Sinitic / East Asian

Data Summary

  • Trade-to-GDP Ratio (1950 CE): ~5-10%
  • Trade Volume (1950 CE): ~$10 billion (1990 international $)
  • Trade-to-GDP Ratio (2000 CE): ~35-45%
  • Trade Volume (2000 CE): ~$7 trillion (2011 international $, PPP)
  • Trade-to-GDP Ratio (2020 CE): ~40-50%
  • Trade Volume (2020 CE): ~$12 trillion (2011 international $, PPP)
  • Trend: Rapidly increasing (rapid growth in trade-to-GDP, very rapid growth in absolute trade volume)
  • Confidence: Strong (World Bank, OECD, WTO, national statistics)
  • Source: World Bank Trade Data, OECD Trade Statistics, WTO Trade Statistics, national statistics
  • Period: 1945-present CE (American period, PRC period, trade expansion, globalization)

Polity Context

  • Primary Polities:
    • People's Republic of China (PRC) (1949-present CE) - 1949-present CE period (dominant)
    • republic china (1912-1949 CE) - 1945-1949 CE period
    • Other Sinitic polities (Korea, Japan, Vietnam)
  • Note: This data represents civilization-level aggregates, with focus on modern China (PRC); specific polities may vary

Time Series Data

Year Trade-to-GDP Ratio (%) Trade Volume (billions, 2011 $ PPP) Source Notes
1950 5-10 10 World Bank/OECD Post-civil war, PRC established, planned economy
1960 8-12 20 World Bank/OECD Economic development, limited trade
1970 10-15 40 World Bank/OECD Cultural Revolution period, limited trade
1980 15-20 120 World Bank/OECD Economic reforms begin, trade expansion
1990 25-30 600 World Bank/OECD Economic expansion, trade expansion
2000 35-45 7,000 World Bank/OECD Rapid economic growth, trade expansion
2010 38-48 10,000 World Bank/OECD Economic expansion, trade expansion
2020 40-50 12,000 World Bank/OECD Trade growth, globalization continues

Comparative Context

  • Regional average (East Asia, 2000 CE): ~35-45% trade-to-GDP
  • Global average (2000 CE): ~45% trade-to-GDP
  • Ranking: 2nd largest trade volume globally (2000-present CE, after Western/Atlantic)
  • Comparison to Western/Atlantic (2000 CE): ~0.5x trade volume (but growing rapidly)
  • Comparison to historical Sinitic (1500 CE): ~600x larger trade volume (inflation-adjusted)

Key Events

  • 1949 CE: PRC formation → People's Republic of China Formation (1949 CE) - Trade system transformation, planned economy
  • 1978 CE: Economic reforms → Economic transformation, trade expansion
  • 1990s CE: Globalization acceleration → Globalization Acceleration (1990s CE) - Trade expansion, globalization peak
  • 2008 CE: Global Financial Crisis → global financial crisis 2008ce - Trade decline, recovery
  • 2001 CE: China joins WTO → Trade expansion, global integration

Trade-to-GDP Ratio (percent, 1945-present)

Data table (8 points)
YearValueSource
19507.5World Bank/OECD
196010World Bank/OECD
197012.5World Bank/OECD
198017.5World Bank/OECD
199027.5World Bank/OECD
200040World Bank/OECD
201043World Bank/OECD
202045World Bank/OECD

Trade Volume (billions_1990_intl_dollars, 1945-present)

  • Some values are estimates (interpolated or inferred); each carries a method and confidence in the table (hover the ~).
  • Converted to 1990 international dollars by an approximate price deflator; to be replaced with Maddison values.
Data table (8 points)
YearValueSource
1950~5.81World Bank/OECD
1960~11.62World Bank/OECD
1970~23.24World Bank/OECD
1980~69.73World Bank/OECD
1990~348.63World Bank/OECD
2000~4067.32World Bank/OECD
2010~5810.46World Bank/OECD
2020~6972.56World Bank/OECD
About this entry

A draft entry preserved from civilization.study. Evidence grade: strong. 3 of 3 listed sources are fully documented; the rest are names only. Method and sources

Methodology Notes

  • Estimation method:
    • World Bank Trade Data (limited coverage for PRC early period)
    • OECD Trade Statistics
    • WTO Trade Statistics
    • National statistics (PRC, other Sinitic polities)
    • Cross-validation using GDP data
  • Data quality: Strong (official statistics, validated estimates)
  • Uncertainty range: ±10-15% (some estimation for early period)
  • Limitations:
    • PRC trade data availability (improving over time)
    • Different trade types (goods, services, etc.)
    • Trade balance variation
  • Cross-validation:
    • GDP data (trade-to-GDP ratios)
    • Infrastructure data (infrastructure enables trade)
    • Economic data (trade enables economic growth)

Integration with Corpus

Notes

  • Trade structure: Primarily goods trade, services trade, financial flows
  • Growth drivers: Economic growth, globalization, trade agreements, infrastructure development
  • Period variations:
    • 1949-1978 CE: Planned economy period, limited trade, state control
    • 1978-present CE: Economic reform period, rapid trade expansion, global trade networks
  • Regional variation: PRC (dominant, rapid trade expansion), other Sinitic polities (Korea, Japan, Vietnam) have different trade patterns
  • Trade networks: Global trade networks (East Asia, global expansion)
  • Event-data integration: Trade volume growth linked to PRC formation (1949), economic reforms (1978), globalization (1990s)
  • Data needs: More detailed regional trade estimates, trade balance data, services trade data

Art: Patterns of Civilization chronicle art, made with AI: illustrations, not historical evidence. Entries are drafts preserved from civilization.study. Method and sources.