Data card
Southeast Asian/Maritime Civilization Population Data 800-1500 CE
Population estimates for Southeast Asian/Maritime civilization during medieval period (800-1500 CE), showing moderate population and maritime trade network integration.
Southeast Asian maritimeData Summary
- Population (800 CE): ~10 million
- Population (1200 CE): ~18 million
- Population (1500 CE): ~22 million
- Population density (1200 CE): ~4-8 people/km² (core regions)
- Growth rate: ~0.3% annual growth (moderate)
- Trend: Increasing (moderate growth, maritime trade integration)
- Confidence: Weak (limited historical records, primarily archaeological estimates)
- Source: McEvedy & Jones 1978, archaeological settlement data
- Period: 800-1500 CE (Medieval period, Srivijaya, Angkor, regional kingdoms)
Time Series Data
| Year | Population (millions) | Population Density (people/km², core) | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 800 | 10 | 3-5 | McEvedy & Jones 1978 | Early state formation, population growth |
| 1000 | 14 | 4-6 | McEvedy & Jones 1978 | Srivijaya, Angkor, trade expansion |
| 1200 | 18 | 5-8 | McEvedy & Jones 1978 | Regional kingdoms, trade network peak |
| 1400 | 20 | 5-8 | McEvedy & Jones 1978 | Regional variation, continued growth |
| 1500 | 22 | 6-9 | McEvedy & Jones 1978 | Regional kingdoms, continued growth |
Comparative Context
- Regional average (Southeast Asia, 1200 CE): ~20 million
- Global average (1200 CE): ~360 million
- Ranking: Moderate population globally (800-1500 CE)
- % of world population (800 CE): ~4%
- % of world population (1500 CE): ~5%
- Comparison to other civilizations (1200 CE):
- Sinitic: ~0.26x (Sinitic ~68 million)
- Islamic: ~0.33x (Islamic ~55 million)
- Population density comparison: Low-moderate density (4-9/km²) compared to other civilizations
Key Events
- 800-1000 CE: Srivijaya expansion period - Population growth (12M → 15M), state formation, maritime trade expansion
- 1000-1200 CE: Srivijaya peak and Majapahit expansion - Continued population growth (15M → 18M), trade network integration
- 1200-1400 CE: Majapahit expansion period - Continued population growth (18M → 20M), trade network integration
- 1400-1500 CE: Melaka expansion period - Continued population growth (20M → 22M), port polity coordination
- 1511 CE: Portuguese conquest of Melaka → portuguese conquest melaka 1511ce - Melaka fall, population disruption (post-period)
- Event-data integration: Population growth (12M → 22M) linked to Srivijaya expansion (800-1000 CE), Majapahit expansion (1200-1400 CE), and Melaka expansion (1400-1500 CE), with port network coordination enabling population capacity
Total Population† (millions, 800-1500)
Data table (5 points)
| Year | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 800 | 10 | McEvedy & Jones 1978 |
| 1000 | 14 | McEvedy & Jones 1978 |
| 1200 | 18 | McEvedy & Jones 1978 |
| 1400 | 20 | McEvedy & Jones 1978 |
| 1500 | 22 | McEvedy & Jones 1978 |
About this entry
A draft entry preserved from civilization.study. Evidence grade: weak. 2 of 2 listed sources are fully documented; the rest are names only. † marks figures that are scholarly estimates. Method and sources
Methodology Notes
- Estimation method:
- McEvedy & Jones (1978) provides rough estimates based on archaeological settlement data and carrying capacity models
- Archaeological evidence (settlement size, number of cities, urban population, port cities) - primary source
- Carrying capacity models (rice productivity, maritime trade capacity)
- Historical records (very limited, primarily Chinese and Arabic sources)
- Data quality: Weak (very limited historical records, primarily archaeological estimates with high uncertainty)
- Uncertainty range: ±30-40% (high uncertainty due to limited data, archaeological estimates)
- Limitations:
- Very limited historical records for this period
- Archaeological estimates have high uncertainty
- Regional variation within Southeast Asian/Maritime civilization not fully captured (Mainland vs. Maritime)
- Age structure, fertility, and mortality data unavailable
- Urban vs. rural population breakdown uncertain
- Cross-validation:
- Archaeological settlement data (city size, number of cities, urban population, port cities)
- Agricultural carrying capacity (rice productivity, cultivated area)
- Maritime trade network capacity (port activity, trade volume)
Integration with Corpus
- Links to claims: Southeast Asian Maritime Civilization (supports GGS assessment)
- Supports patterns:
- Guns–Germs–Style (GGS) Axes and Success/Failure Mechanisms (moderate population supports Style axis - maritime trade network integration, port city coordination)
- Trade Networks as Civilizational Connectors and Transformers [trade-network-dynamics] (population size reflects trade network integration and port city capacity)
- Population Dynamics and Civilizational Capacity (population size and density affect civilizational capacity)
- GGS implications:
- Style axis: Moderate population (10-22 million) requires and demonstrates institutional capacity (maritime trade coordination, port city administration, resource management)
- Germs axis: Low-moderate population density (4-9/km²) with maritime connectivity affects disease vulnerability (moderate risk, maritime transmission)
- Economic capacity: Moderate population enables economic specialization and surplus generation (maritime trade specialization, agricultural surplus)
- Military capacity: Moderate population provides limited military potential (Guns axis), though effective maritime military organization
- Framework integration:
- CAD: Social domain, persistence/transformation mechanisms, Germs and Style frameworks
- Demographic patterns: Supports Demographic Patterns Across Civilizations with quantitative evidence
- Trade networks: Population size reflects Trade Networks as Civilizational Connectors and Transformers [trade-network-dynamics] capacity
Notes
- Demographic structure: No data on age structure, fertility, and mortality for this period
- Population growth:
- 800-1200 CE: Population growth (state formation, maritime trade expansion, urbanization)
- 1200-1500 CE: Continued growth (regional kingdoms, trade network integration)
- Regional variation: Core regions (port cities, river basins) higher population density than periphery
- Urbanization: Significant urban population (estimated 10-15% in major cities - Angkor, Srivijaya, port cities)
- Maritime trade effects: High connectivity through maritime trade networks affects population distribution and urbanization
- Data needs: More archaeological settlement data, agricultural productivity estimates, urban vs. rural breakdown, maritime trade data