Data card
Western/Atlantic Trade Volume Data 1945-present CE
Trade volume estimates for Western/Atlantic civilization during American period (1945-present CE), showing trade-to-GDP ratios, trade network expansion, and globalization.
Western / AtlanticData Summary
- Trade-to-GDP Ratio (1950 CE): ~15-20%
- Trade Volume (1950 CE): ~$200 billion (1990 international $)
- Trade-to-GDP Ratio (2000 CE): ~40-50%
- Trade Volume (2000 CE): ~$14 trillion (2011 international $, PPP)
- Trade-to-GDP Ratio (2020 CE): ~45-55%
- Trade Volume (2020 CE): ~$16 trillion (2011 international $, PPP)
- Trend: Increasing (rapid growth in trade-to-GDP, very rapid growth in absolute trade volume)
- Confidence: Strong (World Bank, OECD, WTO, national statistics)
- Source: World Bank Trade Data, OECD Trade Statistics, WTO Trade Statistics, national statistics
- Period: 1945-present CE (American period, post-war trade expansion, globalization)
Polity Context
- Primary Polities:
- United States of America (1776-present CE) - 1945-present CE period (dominant)
- united kingdom (1707-present CE) - 1945-present CE period
- germany (1871-present CE) - 1945-present CE period
- france (1789-present CE) - 1945-present CE period
- european union (1993-present CE) - Supranational trade integration
- Other Western/Atlantic polities
- Note: This data represents civilization-level aggregates across multiple polities; specific polities may vary
Time Series Data
| Year | Trade-to-GDP Ratio (%) | Trade Volume (billions, 2011 $ PPP) | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 15-20 | 200 | World Bank/OECD | Post-World War II, trade recovery |
| 1960 | 20-25 | 450 | World Bank/OECD | Trade expansion, European integration |
| 1970 | 25-30 | 900 | World Bank/OECD | Trade expansion, globalization begins |
| 1980 | 30-35 | 2,200 | World Bank/OECD | Trade expansion, economic growth |
| 1990 | 35-40 | 6,500 | World Bank/OECD | Trade expansion, globalization acceleration |
| 2000 | 40-50 | 14,000 | World Bank/OECD | Trade peak, globalization peak |
| 2010 | 42-52 | 15,500 | World Bank/OECD | Post-financial crisis, trade recovery |
| 2020 | 45-55 | 16,000 | World Bank/OECD | Trade growth, globalization continues |
Comparative Context
- Regional average (Western/Atlantic, 2000 CE): ~40-50% trade-to-GDP
- Global average (2000 CE): ~45% trade-to-GDP
- Ranking: Largest trade volume globally (1945-present CE)
- Comparison to Sinitic (2000 CE): ~2x larger trade volume
- Comparison to historical Western/Atlantic (1500 CE): ~700x larger trade volume (inflation-adjusted)
Key Events
- 1945 CE: End of World War II → World War II (1939-1945 CE) - Post-war trade recovery, trade expansion
- 1945 CE: Cold War begins → Cold War (1945-1991 CE) - Trade network expansion, economic integration
- 1990s CE: Globalization acceleration → Globalization Acceleration (1990s CE) - Trade expansion, globalization peak
- 2008 CE: Global Financial Crisis → global financial crisis 2008ce - Trade decline, recovery
- 1991 CE: Soviet Union dissolution → Soviet Union Dissolution (1991 CE) - Trade network expansion, post-Cold War integration
Trade-to-GDP Ratio (percent, 1945-present)
Data table (8 points)
| Year | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 17.5 | World Bank/OECD |
| 1960 | 22.5 | World Bank/OECD |
| 1970 | 27.5 | World Bank/OECD |
| 1980 | 32.5 | World Bank/OECD |
| 1990 | 37.5 | World Bank/OECD |
| 2000 | 45 | World Bank/OECD |
| 2010 | 47 | World Bank/OECD |
| 2020 | 50 | World Bank/OECD |
Trade Volume (billions_1990_intl_dollars, 1945-present)
- Some values are estimates (interpolated or inferred); each carries a method and confidence in the table (hover the ~).
- Converted to 1990 international dollars by an approximate price deflator; to be replaced with Maddison values.
Data table (8 points)
| Year | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 1950 | ~116.21 | World Bank/OECD |
| 1960 | ~261.47 | World Bank/OECD |
| 1970 | ~522.94 | World Bank/OECD |
| 1980 | ~1278.3 | World Bank/OECD |
| 1990 | ~3776.8 | World Bank/OECD |
| 2000 | ~8134.65 | World Bank/OECD |
| 2010 | ~9006.22 | World Bank/OECD |
| 2020 | ~9296.74 | World Bank/OECD |
About this entry
A draft entry preserved from civilization.study. Evidence grade: strong. 3 of 3 listed sources are fully documented; the rest are names only. Method and sources
Methodology Notes
- Estimation method:
- World Bank Trade Data (comprehensive coverage)
- OECD Trade Statistics
- WTO Trade Statistics
- National statistics (United States, Western Europe)
- Cross-validation using GDP data
- Data quality: Strong (comprehensive official statistics)
- Uncertainty range: ±5-10% (official statistics, high quality)
- Limitations:
- Regional variation within Western/Atlantic civilization
- Different trade types (goods, services, etc.)
- Trade balance variation
- Cross-validation:
- GDP data (trade-to-GDP ratios)
- Infrastructure data (infrastructure enables trade)
- Economic data (trade enables economic growth)
Integration with Corpus
- Links to claims: Western / Atlantic Civilization (supports GGS Style axis assessment)
- Supports patterns:
- Guns–Germs–Style (GGS) Axes and Success/Failure Mechanisms (high trade volume supports strong Style axis - trade network coordination, economic integration)
- Trade Networks as Civilizational Connectors and Transformers [trade-network-dynamics] (high trade volume reflects trade network integration and expansion)
- GGS implications:
- Style axis: High trade volume supports strong Style axis assessment - high trade volume requires and demonstrates trade network coordination (trade agreements, infrastructure, economic integration)
- Economic dynamism: Trade volume growth indicates civilizational dynamism and economic integration
- Comparative advantage: Largest global trade volume (1945-present CE) indicates strong civilizational capacity and coordination
- Framework integration:
- CAD: Institutional and material domains, persistence/transformation mechanisms, Style framework
- Trade networks: High trade volume reflects trade network integration in Trade Networks as Civilizational Connectors and Transformers [trade-network-dynamics]
Notes
- Trade structure: Primarily goods trade, services trade, financial flows
- Growth drivers: Economic growth, globalization, trade agreements, infrastructure development
- Period variations:
- 1945-1990 CE: Post-war trade expansion, European integration, trade network expansion
- 1990-present CE: Globalization acceleration, trade peak, global trade networks
- Regional variation: United States (large trade volume, moderate trade-to-GDP), Western Europe (high trade-to-GDP, EU integration)
- Trade networks: Global trade networks (North America, Europe, global expansion)
- Event-data integration: Trade volume growth linked to post-war expansion (1945), globalization (1990s), financial crisis (2008)
- Data needs: More detailed regional trade estimates, trade balance data, services trade data