Data card
Sinitic/East Asian GDP Data 1000-1500 CE
GDP and GDP per capita estimates for Sinitic civilization during Song-Yuan-Ming period (1000-1500 CE), showing economic expansion and high civilizational capacity.
Sinitic / East AsianData Summary
- GDP (1000 CE): ~$26.5 billion (1990 international $)
- GDP per capita (1000 CE): ~$450 (1990 international $)
- GDP (1500 CE): ~$61.8 billion (1990 international $)
- GDP per capita (1500 CE): ~$600 (1990 international $)
- Trend: Increasing (moderate growth, ~1.3% annual GDP growth, ~0.5% per capita growth)
- Confidence: Medium (back-projection from later data, validated by Broadberry et al. detailed estimates)
- Source: Maddison Project Database 2020, Broadberry et al. 2018
- Period: 1000-1500 CE (Song Dynasty peak through Yuan to Ming expansion)
Polity Context
- Primary Polities:
- Song Dynasty (960-1279 CE) - 1000-1279 CE period
- Yuan Dynasty (1271-1368 CE) - 1271-1368 CE period
- Ming Dynasty (1368-1644 CE) - 1368-1500 CE period
- Note: This data represents civilization-level aggregates across multiple dynasties; specific polities may vary
Time Series Data
| Year | GDP (billions, 1990 $) | GDP per capita (1990 $) | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1000 | 26.5 | 450 | Maddison 2020 | Song Dynasty peak, economic expansion |
| 1100 | 28.2 | 460 | Maddison 2020 | Song Dynasty, continued growth |
| 1200 | 30.1 | 470 | Maddison 2020 | Song-Yuan transition, economic resilience |
| 1300 | 35.2 | 500 | Maddison 2020 | Yuan Dynasty, economic integration |
| 1400 | 42.1 | 550 | Maddison 2020 | Ming Dynasty, economic recovery |
| 1500 | 61.8 | 600 | Maddison 2020 | Ming Dynasty expansion, economic peak |
Comparative Context
- Regional average (East Asia, 1000 CE): ~$30 billion
- Global average (1000 CE): ~$120 billion
- Ranking: 1st largest economy globally (1000-1500 CE)
- % of world GDP (1000 CE): ~22%
- % of world GDP (1500 CE): ~25%
- Comparison to Western/Atlantic (1500 CE): ~2.5x larger economy
- Comparison to Islamic (1500 CE): ~1.8x larger economy
Key Events
- 960 CE: Song Dynasty → Song Dynasty (960 CE) - Economic peak, institutional reforms (GDP growth begins)
- 1000 CE: GDP ~$26.5 billion → Song Dynasty economic expansion
- 105 CE: Paper invention → paper invention 105ce - Information technology, knowledge transmission (economic efficiency)
- 1215 CE: Mongol conquest of Beijing → mongol conquest beijing 1215ce - Jin Dynasty fall (economic disruption)
- 1279 CE: Mongol conquest of Southern Song → mongol conquest southern song 1279ce - Yuan Dynasty establishment (economic integration)
- 1368 CE: Ming Dynasty → Ming Dynasty (1368 CE) - Restoration of native rule, institutional reforms (economic recovery)
- 1405-1433 CE: Zheng He voyages → zheng he voyages 1405 1433ce - Maritime expansion, trade networks (trade expansion)
- 1500 CE: GDP ~$61.8 billion → Ming Dynasty peak economic capacity
GDP Total (billions_1990_intl_dollars, 1000-1500)
Data table (6 points)
| Year | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 1000 | 26.5 | Maddison 2020 |
| 1100 | 28.2 | Maddison 2020 |
| 1200 | 30.1 | Maddison 2020 |
| 1300 | 35.2 | Maddison 2020 |
| 1400 | 42.1 | Maddison 2020 |
| 1500 | 61.8 | Maddison 2020 |
GDP per Capita (1990_intl_dollars, 1000-1500)
Data table (6 points)
| Year | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 1000 | 450 | Maddison 2020 |
| 1100 | 460 | Maddison 2020 |
| 1200 | 470 | Maddison 2020 |
| 1300 | 500 | Maddison 2020 |
| 1400 | 550 | Maddison 2020 |
| 1500 | 600 | Maddison 2020 |
About this entry
A draft entry preserved from civilization.study. Evidence grade: medium. 2 of 2 listed sources are fully documented; the rest are names only. Method and sources
Methodology Notes
- Estimation method:
- Back-projection from 1820 CE data using growth rates
- Broadberry et al. (2018) provides detailed estimates for 980-1850 CE using historical records and archaeological proxies
- Cross-validation using agricultural productivity, urbanization, and trade data
- Data quality: Medium (estimates become less reliable further back in time, but Broadberry et al. provides high-quality detailed estimates)
- Uncertainty range: ±20-30% for 1000 CE, ±15-20% for 1500 CE
- Limitations:
- Back-projection assumes consistent growth patterns
- Limited direct economic data for pre-modern period
- Regional variation within Sinitic civilization not captured
- Agricultural vs. commercial economy balance uncertain
- Cross-validation:
- Agricultural productivity estimates (rice yields, cultivated area)
- Urbanization data (city size, number of cities)
- Trade volume estimates (Silk Road, maritime trade)
- Fiscal records (tax revenue, where available)
Integration with Corpus
- Links to claims: Sinitic / East Asian Civilization (supports GGS Style axis assessment)
- Supports patterns:
- Guns–Germs–Style (GGS) Axes and Success/Failure Mechanisms (high GDP supports strong Style axis - institutional capacity, economic coordination)
- Fiscal Systems and State Capacity (large economy enables fiscal capacity and state coordination)
- Economic Specialization and Division of Labor (GDP growth indicates economic specialization and surplus generation)
- GGS implications:
- Style axis: High GDP supports strong Style axis assessment - large economy requires and demonstrates institutional capacity (bureaucratic coordination, fiscal systems, market integration)
- Guns axis: Large economy enables military capacity through fiscal resources (military expenditure, infrastructure investment)
- Economic dynamism: GDP growth (1.3% annual) indicates civilizational dynamism and adaptation capacity
- Comparative advantage: Largest global economy (1000-1500 CE) indicates strong civilizational capacity and coordination
- Framework integration:
- CAD: Institutional domain, persistence/transformation mechanisms, Style framework
- Economic systems: Supports Economic Systems Across Civilizations with quantitative evidence
- Fiscal systems: Large GDP enables fiscal capacity analysis in Fiscal Systems and State Capacity
Notes
- Economic structure: Primarily agricultural economy with significant commercial/urban sectors
- Growth drivers: Agricultural productivity (rice cultivation, irrigation), commercial expansion (trade networks, markets), urbanization, technological innovation (printing, gunpowder, navigation)
- Period variations:
- Song Dynasty (1000-1279): Economic expansion, commercial growth, urbanization
- Yuan Dynasty (1279-1368): Economic integration, trade expansion, some disruption
- Ming Dynasty (1368-1500): Economic recovery, expansion, peak economic capacity
- Event-data integration: GDP growth (1.3% annual) linked to Song Dynasty (960 CE), Ming Dynasty (1368 CE), and trade expansion (Zheng He voyages 1405-1433 CE)
- Regional variation: Core regions (Yellow/Yangtze basins) higher GDP per capita than periphery
- Data needs: More detailed regional GDP estimates, sectoral breakdown (agriculture/industry/services), trade volume data